End of an era of cheap oil


In the construction of the figure was used technical analysis package of CQG, Inc., Graciously allowed the use of the company's management, for which the author expresses his gratitude.

Part 2.

Rising global world demand pushes up oil futures market. The high level of geopolitical risks and speculation of some large hedge funds only add confidence bulls. Also on the side of the oil bulls richest people of the world, who play against the U.S. dollar.

Why do prices drop on U.S. gas stations

Current situation in the oil futures market is mixed. On the one hand, a number of risks that are present in the global oil industry in the high demand for oil and meager reserve capacity, create a compelling basis for the game to improve. On the other hand, the rapid rise in oil prices comes at a time when supply outstrips demand (k2kapital.com). According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), inventories of crude oil and refined products in industrialized countries increased in the II quarter to 810 thousand barrels per day, which corresponds to the average seasonal value in the last five years.

Thus, the rapid rise in oil prices, with the establishment of amazing records, comes at a time when inventories of crude oil and petroleum products are within the normal seasonal range. The United States consumes about 20 million barrels of oil and oil products per day, far ahead of other countries on this indicator. China last year, came in second place, consuming about 6 million barrels per day. Stocks of crude oil and petroleum products in the United States has always been a fundamental factor in determining the market of "black gold." But this summer the bulls do not want to see that fuel supplies in the U.S., which in winter and spring, far short of the normal seasonal values, provoking a rise in oil prices have returned to seasonal ranges. While inventories of oil are, according to the U.S. Department of Energy, "in the lower half of the average range for this time of year," gasoline inventories close to the upper limit of the average seasonal range.

Seems to reflect the situation in the U.S. gasoline market was the continued decline in gasoline prices on American stations. Retail gasoline prices in the U.S. have reached a historic high at the end of May, when the fuel futures markets have experienced unprecedented growth due to the then low gasoline inventories in the U.S. and the start of the summer driving season.

In June, retail gasoline prices steadily declined because of falling oil prices, and improve the balance of supply and demand for gasoline market. Stocks of distillate oil in the U.S., which include heating oil, the main winter petroleum and diesel fuel, are now approaching the middle of the normal seasonal diapazona.Opisyvaya in the August report, the situation with commodity stock-mi oil and petroleum products in the industrial countries, OPEC noted that in July gasoline inventories in the U.S. increased - contrary to the usual seasonal trend. Moreover, "the increase in gasoline inventories was mainly caused by lower demand." Most likely, because of it, and dropped the price of gasoline at U.S. filling stations.