In pursuit of cheap sensationalism

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Goldsmiths 'master'

In the second paper [2] Hamilton as the main character performs all the same JPMorganChase, Nr already in the scenery of the gold market. Hamilton first resorted to the manipulation of familiar figures, which it "stuns" the reader and enters it into a state of irrational reality. According to home-grown 'analytics », JPMorganChase controls $ 56.8 billion in gold derivatives (as of March 31, 2002 - $ 45.23 billion), equal to the volume production of the yellow metal in two and a half years. "The global gold mining industry will have to meet the appetites supermonstra at least two years" - says Alexander Hamilton. In fact, the real value of gold derivatives portfolio of the bank is less than $ 1 billion, while the gross market value of all the derivatives market for gold hovers around $ 20 billion.

Comparison with annual gold production is really impressive. However, it is incorrect - so you can compare, if gold is annually consumed like oil, but because it is accumulated. Every year, the world produces 4 tons of precious metals, resulting in history officially accumulated more than 30 thousand tons. Thus, "in the hands» JPMorganChase through derivatives is conventionally 0.016% spot market metal. After the fantastic figures Hamilton, referring to third parties like some crafty lawyer, randomly throws in face charges many reputable financial institutions. So, JPMorganChase guilty of manipulating the price of gold, because gold is actively operated with derivatives in the period of unstable prices. In addition, its activity, according to Hamilton, explained "some inside information." Gold cartel, the specialized international organization designed to stabilize the price of gold, and to which major central banks, is accused of "wicked conspiracy." Although the trial was closed for lack of evidence, however, for fans of cheap sensations cartel participants are "conspirators."

The founders of the Bank for International Settlements (which is a private club, a bank for central banks) are accused that they have installed unfairly low price for its shares - although what actually matters to Hamilton what is happening in a closed society?

Leading players in the gold market are responsible for the fact that they are scam artists and they want the world to carry out the expropriation in favor of the interests of Wall Street - this statement do not be some reasonable explanation!

I read all these accusations proletarian revolutionary style, and Hamilton reminded me of an old woman sitting on a bench at the entrance and painstakingly collecting gossip about the residents.

Paradoxes of Hamilton

In 1930, the classic macroeconomics John Maynard Keynes formulated an interesting pattern that is characteristic of the era of the gold standard: between nominal interest rates and the price level was a positive correlation. It was ironic, because when gold monometallism prices are relatively stable (in time they represent a fixed number of speakers), and an increase in the money supply on the one hand, should lead to higher prices and, on the other hand - to the fall in interest rates. However, between the prices and rates were not negative and positive relationship. Keynes identified observations described as "one of the most difficult to prove the facts in quantitative economics" and called it the "paradox of Gibson."

According to Hamilton, currently there is an inverse relationship between gold prices and interest rates, that is, violation occurred Gibson paradox. Naive reader would hit the scientific reasoning of the American "independent analyst" and would believe him at his word. But now it is clear that the "expert" simply distorted the essence of the paradox. First, Keynes was not talking about the price of gold, and on consumer goods prices - which is not the same thing. Second, Gibson's paradox describes the operation of the gold standard, and try on it to a modern monetary system, where there are other economic laws, to put it mildly, incorrect.

What I want to please the reader the latest statement of Mr. Hamilton: "swamping the market sell-gold reserves of the safes Western central banks, our monster (JPMorganChase - approx.'s) Became the sole ruler of the kingdom of interest derivatives." It is well known that gold is sold on its own initiative the monetary authorities of the Old World. That's just what does an American bank? It turns out that central banks dumped gold, and falling prices guilty JPMorganChase.

It seems that Hamilton should go not only to the initial course of economic theory, but also understand the basics of formal logic.