Mega Russia


Currency trading with the nail

Now the turnover of the euro on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange - tiny, no more than 3%. In the OTC interbank market share of the euro higher, at 20%. It is quite possible that the turnover of the euro will increase, and then the Bank of Russia will rise a choice - whether to hold dual currency intervention. In the meantime, the effective euro market in Russia. Monetary authorities have to rely on arbitration in FOREX to determine indirect quotes ruble-euro. Central Bank intervenes only in the dollar market, and then through cross-rate is calculated quotation on the euro.

Exchange rate fluctuations are accompanied by noticeable growth difference between the purchase and sale - spread. The increase in the spread and volatility of leads to risks associated with the delivery on time currency counterparty. MICEX under the new conditions will have to upgrade the risk management system during the trading session. At the stock exchange to be the union of the ETS and SELT instrument in "dollar-ruble", as well as tightening the requirements for pre-deposited funds and limits on market participants by the MICEX.

The problem of risk management will also be relevant for banking customers, which should take care to hedge currency transactions. Previously, the problem was not, as the Bank of Russia minimize fluctuations in the dollar-ruble, and its dynamics has been well predicted.

Now the monetary authorities refused to stabilize the exchange rate daily. Therefore the participants of foreign trade will have to insure the revenue in the futures and forward markets. Now the derivatives market in the country is not developed due to lack of necessary legislation.

Change in exchange rate policy, will certainly contribute to the growth of the derivatives market and intermediary banks' income. MICEX is actively engaged in the development of the market for currency futures.

As for the market of currency, it is easy to predict the reaction of disgruntled people, accustomed to the stability of the dollar. The demand for foreign currency in exchange offices varies wake of the stock market. In fact people are involved as retarded speculator.

Spontaneous fluctuations in demand in the market of currency exchange offices and turn in at the first stage, most likely, will be inevitable. However, when the high volatility will be the norm, the sensitivity of demand to the market conditions expected to decline.

In the long term, while maintaining macroeconomic stability, innovation Bank of Russia will boost the attractiveness of ruble assets.

The residue in the real world

As for the real economy, it is estimated the Economic Research MMIEIFP, innovations will not have much impact on him. Of course, the volatility of the currency market will grow, and it is in the short term will make prices more nervously respond to fluctuations in the exchange rate of dollar-euro. But then, countless small movements up and down the course to pull the pricing of the domestic consumer market on the dollar. In the medium term, the Bank of Russia will continue to focus on the real effective exchange rate as the operating target of monetary policy. This means that the exchange rate policy to the real economy will undergo minor changes.

For businesses, in contrast to the financial sector, short-term fluctuations are not of great interest. If the Central Bank does in the medium term to keep the old management style of the ruble exchange rate, significant macroeconomic changes should be expected.

In the long term, a gradual de-dollarization of the Russian market, and detachment from the dollar pricing "untie the hands" of the Bank of Russia for the conduct of monetary policy, which does not depend on the situation on the currency market.

Monetary authorities will finally move from the Financial Markets with currency interventions to regulation by interest rates.

In the future revision of the tool will allow the Central Bank to get away from a passive policy a la currency board to a full Monetary Policy Economics.