The fundamental side of the market

Indicators of consumer spending

Retail Sales (Retail). Characterizes the strength of consumer demand. If this indicator increases, so more goods are produced, strengthen the economy, the currency becomes more expensive. It is especially important for America, as the focus of its economy is aimed at the consumer.

Consumer Confidence (consumer sentiment). Household surveys designed to assess individual propensity to spend. Not used as a trading signal.

Car Sales (sale of cars). Not used as a trading signal.

Business Inventories (stocks wholesale stores). This figure includes all produced and stored in storage products. Its increase indicates weak sales of goods, no matter what causes non-competitiveness of a product or falling incomes. Overstock stores negatively characterizes the state of the economy and lead to a weakening of the currency.

Published monthly. What this indicator is, the worse for the currency. Has seasonal variations.


Trade Balance (Balance of trade). This export data, which give an indication of the competitiveness of domestic producers and determine the growth of the economy, describing the internal consumption, but significantly behind the other consumption indicators.

Monthly data on the trade balance can play an important role in the prognosis of the GDP.

Reduction of the trade deficit (increase of the increase in the volume of exports over imports, especially due to the increase of exports) are increasing the prices of credit market instruments, an increase in the currency and increase in stock price.>

Trade Balance released every month 17-20 numbers.

Special attention is paid to the U.S. trade balance, Japan, UK and the Eurozone. As an example, the output of the trade deficit the U.S. - Japan August 19, 1999 $ 5.26 billion in May and $ 6.28 billion in June. Yen on these data showed a 7-month LOW - 110.74 to 112.26 yen per dollar.

Current Account (Balance of Payments). Consists of all commercial and financial transactions of residents of the country. The increase in the balance indicates that residents earn more money abroad than we export. Balance of payments strengthens the economy and currency.

Indicators of construction

Construction - one of the most important components of GDP. Development of this sector is a sign of a healthy economy. Due to a number of historical reasons, the construction is particularly important element for the U.S. economy. For this reason, closely monitored all stages of construction, and for each of them, the following indicators:

- Housing Starts and Permits (permit and start construction)

- New and Existing Home Sales (sales of old and new housing)

- Construction Spending (construction costs)

Construction indicators are very sensitive to the level of interest rates as in the construction of a very important role loans. In addition, the industry is in a strong dependence of the level of income, so the increase in activity in the construction industry is only possible with a good state of the economy. This is accompanied by the strengthening of the currency and stock market growth. The downturn in the construction industry can be one of the first alarm troubled state of the economy, and the currency is weakening, and possibly drop in the stock market. In the analysis of these indicators should take into account the seasonal cycles in the construction.