Business aberration


Emotional state and success on the stock exchange

The graph shows the deviation (in percent) of the average daily figure of the most successful and the most unsuccessful traders, depending on their emotional state. The results of the best third traders are less affected, both positive and negative emotions.

The moon affects the profit

study

Scientists from the Business School of Michigan suggested that as the moon affects the psychological state of a person's behavior and mood, then it must have an impact on the stock market - in much the same way as, for example, holidays or vacations. To test their hunch, the researchers compared the data with the phases of the moon on the day's takings in the stock markets of 48 countries for several decades.

findings

Figures fully confirmed the assumptions of scientists. It turned out that in the last seven days old Moon revenues falling by 2.6%, even in the "Seven", where the stock markets are more stable. In other developed countries, daily receipts decreased by 3.75%, and in the emerging markets and at all to 13.35%. Moreover, if the figures do not take seven and 15 days old Moon (that is judged not peak and average), in this period, developed markets subside a little harder: 3.47% in the "seven" and 4.38 % - in the rest. The situation in developing countries, by contrast, a bit aligned - the general decline of profits is only 7%. In the UK, the Moon has a minimal impact on the market - only 0.01%. The sensitivity of the stock markets have been in Turkey and Russia: in these countries, revenue fell by as much as 29.9% and 53.9%, respectively. Interestingly, the stock market is not dependent on the holidays that are celebrated according to the lunar calendar: the Jewish Yom Kippur is a smaller negative impact on earnings, as the Jewish New Year - none at all.

Stock market game is not for amateurs

study

Scientists School of Management, University of California conducted an analysis of financial activity in the market shares of 78 000 households owning securities from 1991 OAG 1996. 12,000 of them have been called rich (more than $ 100 million in securities at any given time), 6000 - active (more than 48 securities transactions per year), while the rest were in the same group. Each family owned an average of 4.3 shares, worth $ 47 million with the majority of households that had only 2.6 package an average cost of only $ 16 thousand

findings

Scientists have found that on average, ordinary people can boast of income, not much inferior to the average. Major indices for the year grew by about 18% and the cost of shares owned by households, or 16.4%. However, further studies have shown that getting any profit only to those families who have used any of the well-known mathematical models of asset valuation: Fama-French or CAPM. Those who buy and sell stocks based on their own reasons, have tended to be in the red. In addition, it was found that the most active shareholders showed the worst results. With an average annual growth of 17.9% in the index value packages active households (who tried to react to the market and are often bought and sold stocks) grew by only 11.4% in the year. That is, if these private investors are not committing any sort of operations, they would have earned half as much.

Sanity only prevents

study

The experiment involved 19 healthy volunteers and 15 volunteers with lesions of the brain regions that are responsible for emotions and decision-making: the frontal lobes, amygdala and the somatosensory cortex. Was also collected from a control group of seven patients with brain damage that do not affect the emotions or decision making. Moreover, all study participants had normal intelligence. Each participant received $ 20 in each of the 20 rounds of the game was to decide whether to invest $ 1 or not. Leading tossed a coin, and if the eagle dropped, invested participant received $ 2.5, and if tails - lost dollar invested. Thus, the probability of remaining at a loss for a player who agreed to invest in every round, does not exceed 13%.

findings

As expected, all participants initially invested approximately the same frequency. However, after the first round of the healthy behavior and control groups changed: they became increasingly unwilling to invest. If a round led to the loss of the dollar, the investment should be addressed only in 40.5% of healthy participants and 37% of those in the control group. But the volunteers in the experimental group did not pay attention to the losses - after the failure they have invested in 85.2% of cases. However, the same way they react to their success - by agreeing to invest in 83% of cases. In the healthy group, it has happened only in 61% of cases. As a result, at the end of the game from the healthy volunteers group earned an average of $ 22.6 per person. The average income of people with brain injuries that affect emotions and decision-making was more - $ 25.05.