Mega Russia

The paradox can be explained by trade pricing characteristics and nominal rigidities that exist in the Russian economy. Many of the local exporters and foreign importers resort to pricing orientirovannomu on market share (pricingtomarket behavior), rather than to maximize the profits. Companies seeking to maintain and expand market share marketing, fix prices in the local market in the consumer currency, taking the currency risk on themselves. Thus, there is a gap between turnover and the exchange rate. Pricing, aimed at increasing the market share, the most common in South-East Asia, especially in Japan. Another feature of the pricing in foreign trade is the rigidity of prices, known in economic theory "nominal castle." Its essence lies in the fact that counterparties fixed parameters of the contract during the period of its validity. In developed countries in international trade are the predominantly consumer and industrial products.

Polls retailers show that in the euro area aggregate prices are on average change as often as every three to four quarters, and in the U.S. - every two to three quarters. In Russia, specializing in raw materials and export contracts with fixed prices are for a longer period. In particular, Gazprom's contracts have a long maturity. "Nominal lock" not only sets the long-term terms of trade, but also breaks the link trade position and exchange rate.

The consequences were not far off

What then remains at the Central Bank of Russia? Apparently, the monetary authorities of the country will solve the problem through technical: they will pick up and periodically review a dual currency index weight so as to bring it closer to the dynamics of the effective exchange rate of the ruble. In fact, the short-term will be a simplified version of the benchmark efficient basket. Thus, while the medium-term will be kept operational indicator policy and found the indicator for daily interventions.

According to calculations, dual currency index will be as close to the basket effectively and repeat its dynamics by 80%, while the share of the euro will be 78% and the dollar - 22%. This means that the Central Bank will actually make a revolution and redirect the money market in Russia with the American currency in the European one.

Innovation Bank of Russia will have several effects on the financial and real economy. First, changes in the monetary policy impact on financial markets. Exchange rate for the euro will become less volatile, and the amplitude of fluctuations in our national currency to the dollar will rise markedly. Central Bank will assume the overall stability of the ruble, and not its sustainability for the individual currencies.

If earlier prediction of the ruble to the U.S. currency is not a major problem, but now no one can predict the dollar at the end of the year. In fact, the exchange ratio will be determined by the euro-dollar exchange rate, the prediction is not filled bumps one analyst. The high volatility of the ruble will definitely attract short-term players in the market, resulting in a cost expected to increase speculative foreign exchange market.