Focuses statistics


Investment

Overinvestment in new technologies is a major cause of the current economic crisis in the U.S., which, because of this it is structural rather than cyclical. In the technology race <Fired> too much money, and the business again felt the taste for investment, you need a long time. In II quarter, the first time in half a year marked by the growth of investment. At the same time he was very small and do not suggest to reverse the negative trend. The dynamics of year-to-year shows that investments are still in negative territory.

Number of positive examples in the corporate sector (so, Microsoft announced an increase in the cost of equipment and research) is yet single and do not speak about the general trend.

The collapse of the U.S. stock market this summer - a serious signal further stagnation of investment. It is believed that the loss of the stock market as a means to attract capital (IPO volume dropped dramatically), offset by lower interest rates in the economy. As a result, the real cost of capital for U.S. companies, at best, has not changed. Accordingly, the reduction of interest rates in the current environment does not contribute to stimulate investment.

Public expenditures

Increase in government spending as he was, and remains a major factor in supporting the economy. Here we must bear in mind that government spending has on the economy multiplier effect, and their increase is reflected not only in direct GDP data, but the data on consumer spending. The slowdown in government spending in the II quarter, in my opinion, quite objectively, as the economy is faced with budgetary problems. More accurately assess the situation in the public sector may fall, after the results of the fiscal year ending in September. But now it is quite safe to say that the federal deficit will be at least $ 100 billion, and it is caused not only by the growth of public spending, and reduced tax revenues because of falling profits in the corporate sector.

I do not think that next year, the U.S. expansionary fiscal policy will have an equally significant impact on the overall economic situation this year.

Export-import

Net exports (the difference between exports and imports) reached in II quarter is record high, reaching - $ 497.5 billion, or -5.3% of GDP (that's you and explain the sharp collapse of the dollar, which began in April 2002!).

Given the well-known J-effect, we can assume that minidevalvatsiya dollar will lead to an even greater increase in the trade deficit in the summer months, but since the fall, the trade balance will be corrected.

Dollar decline almost 10% this year really stimulate domestic industry, but I do not think that this effect would be significant. Imported goods in the domestic market will be pushed back a few (imports may fall), but the foreign demand for U.S. products will decrease due to the downturn in the global economy.

Based on estimates of purchasing power parity, it can be argued that the real positive impact on the U.S. trade balance may have only a devaluation of the dollar by 20-30 percent, which I think we will see it in the end - the beginning of the next period.

Conclusions. Forecasts

In summary, we note that, despite some of relativity official macroeconomic statistics, it is, however, quite clearly outlines the deteriorating prospects for the world's largest economy.

Drawing an analogy between the short business cycles in the U.S. economy based on the index PMI, we can say that the country is now in August 2000. This suggests that by the end of this year, the U.S. economy may start another recession. My baseline projection is the resumption of the economic recession in the U.S. at the end of this - early next year.

Based on this baseline forecast of economic trends would suggest that a stronger dollar, which began in July and August, is a corrective to the main character of the long-term trend, the emergence of which occurred this spring, and the continuation will probably take place before the end of this year.

The main purpose of the exchange rate for the euro / dollar in the next 9-12 months, I see the upper limit of ultralong downward trend that is developing in 1992. Approximately this level - 1.10.