The dual nature of the dual form


Clearly, the lower the rate of inflation and the rate of price increases, the difference in the modules will be less, as follows from the magnitudes of direct and inverse numbers. However, these differences in the estimates will occur in any combination, except only - when inflation Modules and price changes are zero.

Again, inflation in Russia and presented as the equivalent rise in prices, which is false. In addition, inflation is defined and discussed in isolation from the devaluation (since 2003 - the revaluation) of the ruble, which further distorts the idea of its size. This raises the need to adjust the published estimates of inflation.

Seven Steps

Leaving aside the question calculation methodology in measuring consumer prices as the source data for the calculation of the price index and inflation rates, the following step by step techniques show multidirectional adjustment of published estimates of inflation in Russia in view of devaluation (case 2000) and the revaluation of the ruble (case 2003) .

Step 1. Identify the consumer price index, assuming that it is calculated on the same methodology, covering the same range of parameters and the same representative set of prices for goods, services and capital.

The index of consumer prices in Russia in 2000, according to the State Statistics Committee, was 120.2% (up 20.2%), in 2003 - 112.0% (up 12.0%). Inflation in Russia, as noted, is identified with the increase in consumer prices and, therefore, recorded in the same values.

Step 2. Qualify accepted identification of inflation as unacceptable and reformulate the scheme of its calculation. By the same circles are comparable and representative set of prices for goods and services is estimated inflation rate as the inverse of the consumer price index.

Of course, all payments must begin with a definition of the enlarged group and the consumer price indices, and only on this basis shall be calculated overall consumer price index. Then the overall rate of inflation (with possible rounding) in 2000 was 0.833 (1.0/1.202), and in 2003 - 0.893 (1.0/1.12). From this we conclude that inflation ("bulge" ruble devaluation of money) in 2000 was in Russia 20.2%, and 16.7%, and in 2003, not 12.0%, and 10.7%.

The difference is significant and can not be ignored as a small quantity, in particular, when deciding on the amount of the additional issue of money. For example, if existed in 2003 in Russia amount of cash flow in excess of 5.0 trillion. rub. ($ 175.4 billion), it means the release of more than 65.0 billion rubles., Or $ 2.3 billion, the extra money.

Step 3. Determines the index of devaluation (2000) and revaluation (2003 rubles), we obtain respectively: 1.043 (28.16 Rs. / U.S..: 27.00 Rs. / U.S..) In 2000, and 0.927 (29.45 Rs. / U.S..: 31.78 Rs. / U.S..) in 2003

Fix the ruble against the U.S. dollar in 2000, depreciated by 4.3%, and in 2003 rose in value by 7.3%.

Step 4. Find the rate of inflation with the devaluation of the ruble in 2000 and revaluation in 2003, assuming the entire ruble mass.