"Sowing the Oil" in the Venezuelan


Productive dialogue between the warring parties could help the revision of the National Assembly, a number of laws passed in December last year by a presidential decree. However, this process is delayed: six months in the first reading was considered a total of 14 laws. For a number of the most important of them obviously do not want to side to make concessions. This concerns first of all the law on oil and on land. In the international arena, external relations and contacts with the arrival of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez perked up considerably and acquired new accents. Increased its role in OPEC and the community in developing countries as a whole, increased cooperation with Asian and European states. However, Venezuela's relations had deteriorated to the U.S.. President Chavez acted as leaders of several groups of developing countries (including "Group of 77", "Group 15"), achieving a fair distribution of the progress between rich and poor countries and condemning the injustice of international trade. Venezuela has launched a number of proposals for the development of the integration movement in Latin America. Closest approach occurred in relations with Cuba. In 2000, Venezuela has become one of the largest trading partners of Cuba - trade totaled $ 912 million, while with China - $ 351 million, with Russia - $ 100 million.

In no small part due to the efforts of Hugo Chavez of Venezuela has regained the lead role in OPEC and the organization, together with the large independent exporters, including Russia, has made the oil price increase this year. However, Venezuela's relations had deteriorated to the U.S.. A number of steps taken by the country are contrary to the interests of the United States: strengthening relations with Cuba, opposition to call George W. Bush on the early formation of the all-American free trade zone, measures to raise oil prices, and, of course, the statement of President Chavez, in which he characterize the actions of the U.S. in Afghanistan as terror in response to the terror of September 11. All this led to a serious deterioration in relations with the United States - the main trading partner of Venezuela.

One of the most important issues, the solution of which depends on the economic dynamism of the relations of Venezuela and the U.S., is the signing of the investment agreement. However, it is clear that, given the deterioration of political relations between the two countries and the political and socio-economic crisis in Venezuela, the conclusion of such an agreement for long delayed. For the same reasons, Venezuela was not available under the U.S. tariff preferences for the countries of the Andean Community of Nations.

Venezuela and Russia: Allies or Rivals?

Over the last two years significantly strengthened Venezuela's relations with Russia. The exchange of visits at the highest level, the parties agreed to coordinate actions to agree on oil prices. Close to signing an intergovernmental agreement on cooperation in the fuel and energy complex.

Considerable potential for the development of relations incorporated in the agreement on military-technical cooperation. It contains an article about the possibility of purchasing weapons, and sharing their production, including for the purpose of supply to third countries.

Considers projects launching and in the interests of Venezuelan companies and telecommunication satellites remote sensing satellites, a joint production of aircraft and medical equipment in Venezuela and create a platform for launching rockets light class. Changes in the world since September 2001, which resulted in U.S. relations with Venezuela have deteriorated, and Russia States was seen as a possible strategic partner, including the provision of energy sources, their effect on the development of economic relations between our countries. The crisis in Venezuela and the volatile situation in the Middle East, the United States took steps to diversify their sources of supply, including the organization of oil supplies from Russia. The response to the Venezuelan media has been relatively calm. They emphasize the opportunistic nature and small volumes of such supplies, their increased transport costs. But they can not disturb the country's leadership, and in the statements of officials pointed to Venezuela's desire to maintain its role as a strategic supplier of oil to the U.S..

It appears that Russia could become a serious competitor in the supply of Venezuelan oil to the U.S. in the long term only if using the U.S. investment would begin the development of Russian Arctic deposits, and oil will be delivered in the shortest way to the West Coast of the United States.

Interest throughout the world to great Venezuelan experiment. It, which it hopes the leaders of this country to find its corresponding circumstances and specificities, the path of development. Today President Chavez himself admits that in the implementation of economic policy mistakes were made. The main flaw was in a bid to speed up reforms to which society was not ready, the excessive contrast of interests of different strata.

However, Chavez continues to support a significant percentage of the population. His supporters - a majority in the National Assembly. The President did not pursue the participants and supporters of the coup, and vice versa - to establish a dialogue with the opposition. In this connection it is not well founded and appropriate publication in the world and the Russian press that predict rapid decline in Chavez. Complex political and socio-economic situation in Venezuela today it difficult to assess its future development. The most probable option, in which the opposition in the next year the government and the opposition somewhat reduced, there will be a revival of production. The future of the country will decide the referendum, which is expected to be held next year.