End of an era of cheap oil


For example, the oil markets of Singapore and Thailand is largely controlled by large hedge funds, which were not only engaged in buying / selling of oil futures and oil extraction, refining it and the actual supply contracts.

For this side of the financiers of hedge funds so attractive that many of them see the oil futures speculation as the main monetary policy funds in the near future. Even a master like Jacob Goldfield (Jacob Goldfield), chief investment Quantum Endowment Fund - the flagship investment empire of George Soros (George Soros) - decided in mid-September 2004 to step down in order to create sobstvennuyuinvestitsionnuyu group. Goldfield simultaneously leaving their positions at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc.

Soros himself led the eldest son of George Soros, Robert (Robert Soros), who recently also more interested in playing the oil futures. It is worth noting that the Quantum Endowment Fund is a hedge fund with an asset-mi to $ 8.3 billion.

If the funds of hedge funds are largely reinvested in the oil futures market, their price can fly in the "sky-made." Confident buying futures of a number of funds due to their pessimism about the long-term prospects for the U.S. dollar.

The rich against the dollar

The figure shows a weekly chart of the U.S. dollar exchange rate index. It is evident that the market is generally characterized as a bear. At this time and again over the past two years and pointed Soros. His Quantum Endowment Fund for several years, is bearish on the dollar. Those executives who were in positions of the strong dollar, gradually retire.

Thus, in 2000, after the resignation of Duncan Hennes (Duncan Hennes) from the post of Chief Executive Officer fund was replaced by Robert Soros, who in April 2003 and replaced as Robert Bishop (Robert Bishop) as Director of Investments in shares . Now R. Soros is the deputy chairman of Soros Fund Management, and in mid-September was appointed, as mentioned, Chief Investment Quantum Endowment Fund. The eldest son of George Soros also sees great prospects dollar.

This agrees with him another world famous financier - Warren Buffett (Warren Buffett), which is one of the richest people in the world (according to Forbes, his personal fortune of $ 42.9 billion.) More than a year ago, the holding company Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Which is controlled by Warren Buffett, reported the formation of a multi-currency portfolio of the five major world currencies, with a focus on short positions on the dollar. By the summer of 2004, the capitalization of the portfolio increased to $ 19 billion.

Analysts Berkshire Hathaway Inc. repeatedly stated that while the U.S. economy is a problem of twin deficits (trade and payments - approx.'s), then talk about a serious strengthening of the dollar is not necessary. Buffett himself does not specify when will a serious devaluation of the dollar-a year or two. But the fact that it will happen, it is absolutely certain.

Now we can be sure that the opinion of Warren Buffett is confirmed by the events of the last months in the markets, especially in the quotations of oil futures and metals, including gold.

Thus, if the U.S. dollar in the foreseeable future will be strengthened, it is "automatic" means that the energy futures markets to grow [1]. It seems that the era of cheap oil to the price of $ 16-22 a barrel of Brent crude sank into oblivion.

In the construction of the figure was used technical analysis package of CQG Inc., Graciously allowed the use of the company's management, for which the author expresses his gratitude.